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Iran has deported at least 9,000 Afghan refugees since the beginning of 2009, and the country continues to repatriate nearly 500 per day despite its earlier pledge to halt return efforts for the winter. The recent expulsions suggest an internal struggle between strategic pragmatism and the demands on the country’s decelerating economy. With elections on the horizon, Tehran’s refugee policies can serve as a barometer to measure shifts in domestic unrest and the government’s attitude toward regional commitments. As the US considers a new engagement strategy toward Iran, Tehran’s refugee policy could have an impact on its ability to cooperate with the US on Afghanistan and other regional issues.
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