Variations in Violent Conflict in Three Kenyan Provinces: The Relative Influence of Political Factors and Environmental Scarcity

Since "The Stockholm Conference" on the environment, there has been much debate about the impact of environmental scarcity on societies in general and its relationship to violent conflict. Many scholars, both in the physical and the social sciences, have posited that environmental scarcity will exacerbate economic, social and political problems, which in turn can result in conflict. The proposed research explores the theory that environmental scarcity will lead to violent conflict, if it simultaneously interacts with other social, economic and political factors. A case study might help to reveal patterns of the interactive effects of environmental scarcity, with social economic and political factors aiding and complementing each other in causing violent conflict. The results of the proposed research will: (1) Address gaps in current theoretical formulations; (2) Provide practical policy prescriptions for leaders of governments and interested organizations; and, (3) Provide practical conflict resolution mechanism in environmental conflicts.

Environmental degradation, environmental scarcity and the resultant development of violent conflicts in three provinces in Kenya are examined. Building on conceptual and theoretical frameworks postulated by Thomas Homer Dixon, and Colin Kahl, the causal dynamics of violence relating to environmental degradation and environmental scarcity are thoroughly investigated. One hundred and twenty semi-structured interviews with individuals including government officials, civil servants, local people, and chiefs were conducted and a total of ten focused group discussions were held between May 2002 and October 2004. Two major print newspapers (The Daily Nation and The East African Standard) were analyzed between 1980 and 2004. Government Reports including Judicial Commission of Inquiry Reports were also investigated and analyzed. The findings suggest that environmental scarcity and environmental degradation do not contribute to the initiation of violence, although they clearly have an indirect effect.