Confidence Gap: Citizen Priorities on the One-Year Anniversary of the National Constituent Assembly Elections (Tunisia)

Executive Summary:

This report explores public opinion in Tunisia in late October/early November 2012. Based on 12 focus group discussions with 121 Tunisian participants, the report examines Tunisian citizens’ attitudes and concerns about progress toward drafting the country’s constitution, the role of political institutions, and expectations for future elections. As with all NDI public opinion studies, participants were asked about their views on political party and governing institution performance, security, and issues of public concern. A summary of the main findings can be found below. The full results, along with selected quotations from participants, are detailed in the Principal Findings section of this report.

I. National Direction

Following the one-year anniversary of elections for the National Constituent Assembly (NCA), Tunisians express concern over political divisiveness and confusion about the role the opposition should play during the transitional phase. Two-thirds of respondents feel the country is headed in the wrong direction. Participants point to delays in drafting the constitution, as well as the inability of parties to set aside parochial interests to find consensus on key legal questions, including agreement on a political framework and division of powers. While views on how opposition parties should position themselves vary, there is widespread frustration with their performance since elections.

An optimistic minority continue to cite freedoms of expression and association as indicators of positive progress. Specifically, some respondents view these improvements as enabling citizens to oversee the work of government in ways never possible during the presidency of Zine El Abedine Ben Ali.

Participants believe that economic development and job creation have been hampered by chronic strikes and related instability, coupled with corruption and inefficiencies within the Tunisian administration. Residents of Gabès are particularly focused on these issues, following we eks of protests motivated by what was seen as a discriminatory recruitment process at the local chemical factory.

The majority of respondents believe the quality of life for Tunisians has deteriorated since the elections, primarily due to diminished purchasing power in comparison to rapidly rising prices. Participants blame the government for failing to live up to the promises made during the elections. They view attempts to provide positive improvements, such as pre-election unemployment stipends in 2011, as hampering real job creation or as simply inadequate to match the price increases occurring throughout the country.

Political parties—from the ruling coalition and the opposition alike—are the main object of respondents’ frustration, though men are more likely to believe that the government needs more time to address pressing problems than their female counterparts. Despite increased economic anxiety and political delays, the probability of open and sustained protests will likely remain low, unless the current localized instability degenerates into major economic or social shocks that are felt throughout the entire system.

II. Citizen Priorities

Job creation and economic development to alleviate the rising cost of living remain participants’ main priority, regardless of gender or geography. Respondents see efforts by the government and rivate investors to create jobs as too limited and disproportionately favoring certain segments of the population.

Respondents believe that addressing corruption and reforming public administration would increase productivity and improve the country’s economic outlook. Youth in particular mention the need to reform the tax system, seeing effective penalties on tax evasion as an important means of increasing state revenues.

Participants believe security is improving slightly, though they consistently mention the need for police to be vigilant and their fellow citizens to respect the rule of law. Citizens view the Ministry of Interior’s efforts to reform the security sector as insufficient. Similarly, participants encourage police to uphold their commitment to ensuring the safety of the communities in which they serve. Respondents also hold that their fellow citizens need to “change mentalities” in areas ranging from respecting driving laws to respectfully waiting in line at public offices.

Regardless of the priority, participants view improved communication by decision-makers and a process for public consultation as important elements of any workable solutions to citizen concerns. One year after the NCA elections, the electorate believes that officeholders are accountable to citizens and have a responsibility to communicate with voters on a regular basis.

III. Engagement and Activism

Focus group respondents prize greater freedoms of expression and association, though concern is growing over increased bias in the Tunisian media. Participants increasingly consult Tunisian news outlets for information about political developments while viewing each outlet as having a specific political affiliation or leaning. While respondents reference Facebook frequently, its credibility as a trusted source has diminished compared to prior studies. Family and friends remain a trusted source of information.

Women are most likely to feel restrained in exercising their freedoms, citing fear of harassment or physical violence. Respondents note several examples of being verbally attacked for their choice of dress. Women participants also cite work and children as obligations that hinder them from more fully taking part in public life.

In order to attract new members, political parties need to present clear solutions to citizens’ priorities and focus on building public confidence. Respondents seek more concrete ideas and policy programs from parties, as well as more information about political leaders’ professional qualifications and achievements.

Participants may be dissatisfied with the ruling coalition, but they also remain unenthusiastic about opposition parties, which they view as unqualified and unprepared.The pace of political progress has not been fast enough for many focus group participants, who cite political posturing for future elections as the primary reason for delays. Respondents directly credit opposition parties for a recent escalation in political tensions.

IV. Constitutional Process

The majority of respondents believe the constitution-drafting process to be off course. While almost all participants express a belief that the majority of NCA members are not qualified to successfully complete the drafting task ahead of them, a vocal minority also consider the process of constitution-drafting, which includes committee and plenary sessions, to be ineffective.

Expectations regarding the completion of the constitution vary, but few focus group participants demonstrate awareness of the various “roadmaps” for constitution-drafting proposed by ruling coalition and opposition NCA members. Lack of information about various proposals confirms persistent communication deficits between political elites and citizens.

Political divisions within the NCA over the question of separation of powers are mirrored in focus group discussions. Participants supporting a presidential regime stress Tunisia’s political legacy and the need for strong individual leadership, whereas those supporting a parliamentary regime express the need to counter any trend toward the centralization of power. Some advocate for a mixed system but struggle to define how such a political system would work in practice.

The majority of focus group participants support the inclusion of specific references to the protection of the rights of women in the constitution. In many cases, participants make the case for their inclusion in order to focus on responsibilities referenced in Islamic law. A minority of respondents, however, challenge this view, asserting that the constitution should enshrine basic human rights without mention of gender.

Participants continue to reference the value of a referendum on the draft constitution as a means to express a lack of confidence in NCA members’ abilities to reach consensus on the draft constitution within a reasonable timeframe. Participants view elected officials as distanced from constituents as they collect large undeserved salaries and benefits and neglect their primary responsibility to finalize the draft constitution. Some participants raise concerns about the budget and time needed to organize a constitutional referendum; the majority, however, consider a referendum a vital means of ensuring appropriate citizen input into the foundational document.

V. Elections and Voter Confidence

There are differing points of view on a timeline for the next elections. Some participants are certain elections will be held in the early summer as the ruling coalition announced, while others believe such a timeframe is unrealistic. Participants view the lack of progress on the constitution, election law, and legislation to create an election management body as reasons to postpone the polls until the fall.

Participants expect key aspects of the electoral process, including voter registration, to proceed smoothly, yet many believe that political parties will attempt to manipulate vulnerable voters. The administration of the 2011 elections continues to receive positive feedback and serves as a minimum starting point for the organization of future elections. Focus group respondents see resolution of some administrative issues—such as the voter registration process and the post-election grievance process—as essential to enhancing the credibility of the process. Administrative issues aside, participants are much more concerned about the potential for political parties to intimidate or confuse voters.

Expectations for increased political competition and tension in the run-up to Tunisia’s next national election are pervasive among focus group participants.They cite the tenor of political debate since the launch of the Nidaa Tounes party in June—coupled with politically-motivated violence, including the death of a Nidaa Tounes party activist in Tataouine and attacks on opposition party branch offices and events—as evidence that the pre-election environment will be more heated than in 2011.

Participants view the ability of election observers—Tunisian or international—to counter voter intimidation or potential fraud as contingent on their observing the entire electoral process and not just election day. Respondents express diverging viewpoints about the value of Tunisian versus international observation; however, they generally agree on the value of nonpartisan election oversight.

VI. Political Leadership

Focus group participants increasingly view Tunisian political parties with skepticism, complaining that parties are focused on serving their own interests and are not prioritizing their duty to represent citizen concerns. The ruling coalition, and Ennahda more specifically, has not met expectations to provide clear policy programs that respond to citizen interests. Government supporters view opposition parties as impeding the work of the NCA.

If Tunisian opposition parties are to take advantage of opportunities to attract support, they must deliver persuasive messages that demonstrate the weaknesses of the ruling coalition while offering credible alternative solutions. While participants support the idea of opposition parties effectively holding government accountable, they are concerned that parties in the NCA are more focused on lobbing accusations at each other than on presenting sound projects that respond to citizens’ needs.

Respondents’ interest in alliances and parties created since the last elections, including Al Joumhouri and Nidaa Tounes, is tempered by their views that such groups are contributing to a divisive political environment. Confusion stemming from the number of parties in the 2011 elections left voters hoping for greater political consolidation. Voters view mergers and election coalitions as helpful in distinguishing between political options; however, mutual attacks in the media are hurting parties’ reputations.

VII. Looking Forward

More than one year after national elections, Tunisians prioritize improvements in their daily lives over political progress. Localized concerns, including economic development, education reform, and security improvements, dominate participants’ focus.

Respondents voice concerns that the economic situation will continue to deteriorate, pointing to inflation and the view that the government has not fostered sufficient job growth since taking office. Focus group participants clearly feel that their quality of life has deteriorated but not to the point that discontent will lead to mass action against the government beyond localized strikes or protests. Retirees and workers from sectors dependent on the state budget continue to hinge their hopes on the government’s ability to revitalize the economy. Participants view long-term job creation, as opposed to temporary employment schemes, as the only way to adequately address economic challenges.

Serious attempts to counter corruption and increase government transparency would help increase citizen confidence in the country’s leaders. Participants specifically list health care, education, agricultural production, and transport and service industries as areas requiring greater transparency and reform.

Participants consistently cite discrimination among regions as a barrier to healing wounds from the past and developing a democratic culture, which they view as essential to ending the current transition phase. Sidi Bouzid residents are most vocal about being abandoned by politicians since Tunisia’s independence, though similar sentiments are also expressed in Gabès and Monastir. Residents in Tunis acknowledge a higher standard of living but also point to stresses on infrastructure, like public transportation and sanitation services, resulting from a greater influx of job-seekers from rural parts of the country.