Early Warning Systems: Developing a Blueprint for Conflict Prevention

The Genocide Prevention Integration Applied Prac­tice and Theory (APT) aims at integrating early warning systems knowledge to prevent and miti­gate genocide and atrocity risks. During the spring and summer of 2013, a group of S-CAR graduate students, in partnership with former Dean Andrea Bartoli, Tetsushi Ogata, and Bridget Moix, joined forces to contribute to the research and practice of genocide prevention, especially in connection with electoral process. The building of a new APT proved to be a shared learning process, and after two semesters, APT members created a tangible product for practitioners and developed a blueprint that can be used by future S-CAR students.

The APT colleagues came from myriad backgrounds and levels of experience, and discovered as a group how to utilize one another’s strengths collaboratively in order to learn about and contribute to the practice of genocide pre­vention. One member worked for the Bureau of Conflict Stabilization and Operations at the State Department; an­other had extensive experience in journalism and media; yet another was a former strategist and policy analyst in the U.S. Army. The distinct differ­ences among APT members, meshed with the mutual as­pirations of mak­ing a real impact in the field, gave the group a genuine sense of purpose and drive. As a self-driven pro­cess, the APT took some time to gel around a common task and working methods, but the investment in stu­dents leading the design of the experience paid off in strong group commit­ment and collaboration to a shared outcome.

A critical focus of the APT was to examine how lo­cal, national, regional, and international actors move emerging policies on atrocities prevention into prac­tice. The integration of these levels is essential to an effective and fully-functioning system of prevention, and has not yet been achieved despite important de­velopments in the genocide prevention field. One key takeaway from the APT was that prevention needs to be a locally-led, ground-up approach. Another key feature of the APT was meeting with experts and practitioners in the field. We gained exposure to top­ics such as systems designs, crisis mapping, and hate & dangerous speech monitor­ing, and we heard first-hand accounts from people who were on the ground in Ke­nya during the elections. We even had the pleasure of meeting with Ambassador Liberata Mulamula, Senior Diplomatic Adviser to the President of the Republic of Tanzania, and the former Executive Secretary of the International Conference of the Great Lakes Region of Africa. Given the opportunity to meet with many people in the field, we were able gain perspective on how we as an APT could contribute and how our ef­forts fit into the equation.

The APT be­gan with a focus on the upcoming Kenyan 2013 elec­tions (which oc­curred in March 2013). APT mem­bers researched violence preven­tion efforts under­way in Kenya by various stakehold­ers; monitored and analyzed develop­ments in Kenya before, during, and after the national elections; applied conflict resolution theories to bet­ter understand the conflict and opportunities for fur­thering peace processes and preventing violence; and identified gaps and opportunities where a systems approach might contribute to violence prevention ef­forts. APT members collaborated on individual and group research that became their unique contribu­tions to the field.

In the summer semester, the focus broadened to in­clude the Great Lakes Region of Africa (comprised of 12 member states, including Kenya) with a focus on providing support and assis­tance to national and regional leaders in a first -of- its- kind regional genocide prevention system (the International Conference on the Great Lakes Region or ICGLR). George Mason University has a Memorandum of Understanding with the ICGLR to support the de­velopment of its regional genocide prevention mechanisms, includ­ing early warning systems. Working with the ICGLR to identify their needs, the APT team developed a report titled “Guiding Framework for Preventing Electoral Violence,” the first in what will be a series on genocide prevention in the Africa Great Lakes Region. The topics in the handbook include the following: training and capacity - building measures for election monitors, early warning and response systems for election monitoring, analysis of media and speech acts as preven­tive communication, and the role of law enforcement and account­ability issues. The report also drew from lessons learned from the Ke­nyan elections in 2007 and 2013. It seeks to illustrate the lessons that can be applied to other Member States in the ICGLR region when they are gearing toward preparing for upcoming elections. APT members intended for the report to provide analytical tools and prac­tical recommendations for the ICGLR Regional and National Com­mittees to monitor and assess risks of electoral violence and prevent them from occurring and escalating.

When the Genocide Prevention Integration APT began, for­mer Dean Bartoli suggested we imagine it as a 30-year project in which S-CAR students would work in practical ways to sup­port the development of effective local, national, regional, and international systems to help move the African Great Lakes Region, in the words of Amb. Mulamula, “from genocide-prone to genocide-free.” It is an ambitious vision but one which S-CAR students and faculty are well-positioned to carry forward. The Genocide Prevention Integration APT has taken a break in Fall 2013 but, with enough student interest, will be offered again in Spring 2014. For more information on the APT, contact Tetsushi Ogata, Director of the Genocide Pre­vention Program, at [email protected].